toronto real estate

Toronto's real estate market is getting competitive again and experts say it will get worse

Even with Toronto's affordability at an unbearable low, people are returning to the city's housing market with renewed vigour following an exceptionally sluggish year that had realtors and other stakeholders very worried.

Buyers kicked the New Year off with a bang, according to new figures from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), with a whopping 37 per cent more homes sold across the GTA in January 2024 — a total of 4,223 — than in January 2023.

toronto real estate

The latest stats on the Toronto area's real estate market, from TRREB's Market Watch report for January 2024.

This number also marks a 22.9 per cent jump from the month earlier, when experts reflecting back on the year feared that the downward trend in sales would continue into 2024 as mortgage rates remained elevated.

Thankfully, the uptick in activity last month didn't translate to an immediate jump in prices — at least, not yet — with the average home across the region now $1,026,703, around one per cent less than the same time last year and 5.4 per cent down from December.

TRREB also notes that there was stronger sales growth than new listings growth in January, an indication of market tightening for the first time in a while.

"The market conditions when compared to the same period a year earlier potentially point toward renewed price growth as we move into the spring market," TRREB writes, adding that there will likely be flurry of sales in the second half of the year as inflation eases and lower borrowing costs return.

"There will be more competition between buyers in 2024 as demand picks up and the supply of listings remains constrained. The end result will be upward pressure on selling prices over the next two years."

While this is cause for celebration among agents, current homeowners and those who stand to make big bucks out of Toronto's ever-bonkers housing scene, it feels like the vast majority of residents never even got their chance to enter into the market during last year's lull.

Prohibitive interest and stress test rates, a massive property tax hike and market uncertainty kept most would-be buyers sidelined while prices refused to fall equivalent to the lack of activity over the course of 2023.

As of year's end, a household had to earn around $218,000 to buy the typical home in the Toronto area at current rates.

With sales already up and people lining up to tour homes and put down an offer in recent days, it's clear that this year will be very different, though just as (and likely even more) unaffordable — not a surprise given that experts have been saying there's zero chance affordability will ever return to the market here.

Lead photo by

Right At Home Realty, Brokerage via Strata.ca


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