After a year of unprecedentedly low sales activity, Toronto's housing market is set for a rebound, experts say, with things already showing signs of heating up in January.

The latest outlook on what we can expect in 2024 comes from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), which echoes other authorities in predicting higher sales numbers and selling prices compared to 2023's lull.

But, affordability is an issue that can't be ignored, and TRREB is among those continuing to raise alarm bells about the city's lack of supply for a rapidly growing population that is creating textbook demand shock for just about everything.

We’re all first hand experts of this.

— педик made of spicy bear meat 🐻 (@TapeDeckChris) July 28, 2023

Per the board's 2024 Market Outlook and Year in Review, published Thursday, this year will see approximately 77,000 houses and condos changing hands, up from less than 66,000 last year.

The average price for a home of any type across the GTA will also climb to $1,170,000, a small increase from 2023's $1,126,604 (which, we should note, was 5.4 per cent lower than the average price the year prior).

But, according to early polls conducted for the board through Ipsos, about the same amount of people are looking at buying a home this year as last year — 28 per cent of those surveyed — and even fewer plan to sell their home (37 per cent, versus 39 per cent in 2023).

This shows a continued lack of confidence in the market, less available housing supply, and the the long-term effects of higher mortgage rates and a serious lack of affordability overall in the region as the new costs of living remain too high to keep up with.

"Demand for ownership housing in the GTA will start improving in 2024. Record population growth, a resilient economy, low unemployment and declining mortgage rates in the second half of the year will result in increased home sales compared to 2023," the board writes.

"But as the demand for housing picks up, it will be equally important to see a rebound in the supply of homes for sale and an uptick in new home construction... our regions will only see sustained relief on the affordability front once we remove the roadblocks standing in the way of progress and get shovels in the ground faster."

TRREB also notes the social impacts of a lack of housing affordability, which "profoundly" impacts people's satisfaction with living here.

"The social value cost attributed to housing unaffordability is approximately 1.75 times greater than that of cancer in the GTA," the board writes.

IT’S HERE! TRREB’s eagerly awaited 2024 Market Outlook & Year in Review report reveals new research on the social implications of unaffordability and what’s required to adequately prepare for a rising population. Explore the digital digest here: https://t.co/7Ue6eAeJln pic.twitter.com/QVYyhj67ga

— Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (@TheReal_TRREB) February 8, 2024

Like others, it is advocating for lower taxes and fees on housing, a rush on housing starts, and a more diverse housing stock that prioritizes the "missing middle."

On top of property taxes — which are set to rise 9.5 per cent in Toronto this year — buyers have to shell out an average of around $20,000 in land transfer taxes. Provinces like Alberta, meanwhile, don't have the levy at all.

"In the wake of a growing population, policymakers cannot lose sight of planning ahead, and avoid applying band-aid solutions that often result in larger issues than the problems they are attempting to solve," TRREB's CEO writes this week.

"We need to rapidly increase our supply and assist first-time home buyers with relief [and] prioritize "missing middle" housing... all levels of government need to work together and ensure the right incentives are in place for developers to build more housing across the spectrum."