One of the biggest stakeholders in Canada's real estate scene has just made some far less positive projections for the Toronto market in the New Year than competitors have in recent weeks, saying that prices are actually going to surge by quite a lot by the end of 2024.

While the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), RE/MAX and Zoocasa are calling for more of a buyer's market due to decreases in average home prices in Toronto and elsewhere in Canada over the next few months, Royal LePage is forecasting quite the opposite.

Toronto home prices expected to decline even further in 2024👀 https://t.co/HCL6xmiXmJ #Toronto #TorontoRealEstate

— blogTO (@blogTO) November 28, 2023

"Canadians may see the real estate market return closer to normal in 2024," the real estate franchiser wrote in its new housing outlook on Thursday.

"Home prices are expected to rise next year in all major markets across the country... with modest quarterly gains in the first two quarters [and] more considerable increases in the second half of the year."

Driving this shift, the company's CEO says, will be interest rate cuts in the latter portion of the year, along with the public's adjustment to generally higher rates with the acknowledgement that "the ultra-low interest rate era is dead and gone."

This is contrary to other newly-released predictions that the effects of this year's jarring interest rate spikes will continue to be felt through 2024, though some have agreed that there will be "a rapid ascent" in pricing after buyers gradually recover and show renewed interest.

Unlike others, though, Royal LePage is anticipating an increase in the average home price nationwide right from the beginning of 2024, which will only intensify with time.

Chart of how Canada's average home price is slated to inflate over the course of 2024, from Royal LePage's new market outlook.

In Toronto, the cost of real estate will swell more than almost any other domestic city, climbing six per cent by the last few months of the year versus the same quarter this year to reach just shy of $1.2 million.

Detached properties will see the biggest value gains of seven per cent year-over-year (to $1,481,950) with the average condo going up five per cent betweem now and this time next year (to $754,845).

This is compared to the median price across Canada, which the firm says will escalate by 3.3 per cent in Q1 compared to the same quarter of 2023 (0.5 per cent up from our current quarter).

After that, they see a 0.2 per cent year-over-year and 0.9 per cent quarter-over-quarter in Q2, a 3.3 per cent y-o-y and 2.3 per cent q-o-q in Q3, and a 5.5 per cent y-o-y and 1.7 per cent q-o-q by the final quarter, with the standard Canadian home going for $843,684.

"Based on this forecast, by the end of next year, home prices will have essentially climbed back to their pandemic peak, reached in the first quarter of 2022."

Here's where experts predict housing prices in Ontario will drop the most in the New Year🤔 https://t.co/2XUJTHK3z3 #Ontario #OntarioHousing

— blogTO (@blogTO) December 13, 2023

The only other major city in Canada that the brand's experts foresee outpacing the GTA as far as real estate price hikes are concerned is Calgary, which will see its average home go up by eight per cent by the latter part of 2024. 

This will still put the typical place in Calgary at only $711,612, which is only 60 per cent of the price of a residential property in Toronto.

Vancouver will maintain its spot as the priciest Canadian city in which to purchase a home, though its average price will only shoot up three per cent by next year's end.