Home prices throughout Canada's ski and cottage regions are expected to rise 2.9 per cent over the coming year, according to the Royal LePage Winter Recreational Property Report released on Wednesday. 

The real estate company is predicting continued stability throughout the country's winter recreational markets as interest rates are expected to hold or stay moderate. 

Despite optimism for the market next year, sellers and property owners in Ontario's cottage country have been met with a series of challenges over the past few months. 

More specifically, 24 per cent of Royal LePage recreational property market experts reported a decline in buyer demand in 2023 as a result of climate factors or environmental disasters following an unprecedented wildfire season. 

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Canada's recreational communities were significantly impacted by record-breaking wildfires, 6,000 of which destroyed roughly 16.5 million hectares of land throughout Western Canada, the Atlantic provinces, northern regions of Ontario, and Quebec over the summer. 

"This was the worst year for wildfires in Canadian history. For those buying or selling a home, this crisis was a source of concern and confusion as dangerous conditions prompted market disruptions," said Pauline Aunger, broker of record, Royal LePage Advantage Real Estate.

"As the intensity and frequency of wildfires are expected to increase as a result of climate change, we can anticipate that extreme weather events will continue to influence our recreational property markets and consumer decisions."  ​​

And while recreational real estate markets vary greatly from one region to the next, the report reveals that activity on the whole in Canada's cottage country has noticeably slowed. 

"Annual sales are down in most regions and inventory has climbed modestly as the market continues to regain balance. This has not, however, translated to steep price declines in a majority of markets," Aunger explained. 

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The rising cost of living has had an impact on demand for recreational real estate, but prices have remained stable due to a "relatively low supply and sellers' capacity to hold out for a desirable deal." 

Royal LePage is now forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Canada's recreational ski regions will increase over the next 12 months to $1,099,661, but prices in Ontario will look a bit different. 

In the southern Georgian Bay communities — which include Collingwood, Meaford, and Thornbury — the median price for a single-family detached property in 2023 was $800,000, however, this is expected to rise to $836,000 in 2024. 

"Our market is one in transition, but is still holding strong compared to other regions in southern Ontario. Despite some buyers feeling paralyzed with uncertainty over interest rates and a potential recession, sales have remained stable in the region," said Desmond von Teichman, broker, Royal LePage Locations North.

"So far, most homeowners have been able to cope with higher interest rates, though we do hear the occasional anecdote of residents offloading their properties as a result of rising monthly mortgage costs." 

Von Teichman also explained that for owners, renting out a recreational property in the short-term market to help balance out mortgage expenses is not an option in southern Georgian Bay, as the area has restricted such rentals for decades. 

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Demand for recreational properties hit a peak during lockdowns, as the shift toward remote work meant more people were choosing these markets for their primary residences. 

"Recreational house prices in Canada's popular ski regions are expected to remain stable in the year ahead," Aunger said. 

"While demand has weakened and supply has increased compared to the pandemic-fueled boom, market activity is trending back to normal historical levels. This will keep prices on a modest upward trajectory in the coming year."