ontario winter forecast

New winter forecast for Ontario calls for a mess of heavy snow and ice

With the chance that Toronto will get its first snowfall of the season in the coming days amid newly chillier temps, it's apparent that the last hints of autumn are rather swiftly bowing out to make way for winter to arrive in full.

But, after such a mild holiday season across the region last year, what type of weather will the colder months entail as we wrap up 2024 and move into 2025?

With only a few spurts of snow, last winter was a letdown for those hoping for a white Christmas in the city, serving as the warmest on record according to some accounts, though its dying gasps lasted into spring.

This year, though, is shaping up to look far different, which is good news for those who like to partake in ice skating, tobogganing, skiing and snowboarding, and all of the other characteristically Canuck fun.

Earlier forecasts called for thermometers to drop below seasonal levels across Ontario alongside a "whirlwind of snow," with La Niña effects slated to take hold in the weeks to come, as opposed to late 2023's El Niño conditions.

A more recent national update from The Weather Network (TWN) on November 27 reminds residents of the stark difference between the two patterns, writing that winter will "attempt to redeem its reputation" this time around, especially in December.

But, contrary to the Old Farmer's Almanac's predictions that Ontario was due for quite the deep freeze, TWN expects above-normal winter temps for most of the province, albeit with "a more active pattern with near-normal or above-normal precipitation across most of Canada."

It's the West Coast that the agency says will get the most frigid conditions despite seeing less snow than it usually does. Moving eastward, the mercury will hover around near-normal in the Prairies, Northwest Territories, and a slice of eastern Ontario, and push higher than normal everywhere east of that.

As far as precipitation, though, the outlook shows exceptional snowfall and freezing rain amounts on deck for pretty much all of Ontario this winter, along with the U.S. states around the Great Lakes, western Quebec, southeastern B.C., and a small part of Southern Alberta.

TWN does note that "across southern Ontario, southern Quebec and much of Atlantic Canada, milder temperatures will increase the threat for rain and ice at times rather than pure snow events. This should result in below-normal snow totals despite the active pattern."

And, of course, not everything is set in stone, even as close as we are to the start of winter proper on December 21.

"A snowy winter is expected across northern Ontario, but southern areas will often see messy storms with a changeover to ice and rain and the potential for extended thaws. As a result, we expect below-normal snow totals across southern Ontario... but if the storm track ends up being slightly further south than expected, that would completely change how this season is remembered, with much higher snow totals."

This is something echoed by Environment and Climate Change Canada Meteorologist Geoff Coulson, who spoke with blogTO about the snow anticipated in and around the GTA in the coming days, as well as what locals can expect from the month of December and the winter more generally.

"More than a few people that enjoy winter activities were disappointed by how warm last winter was, consistently through the course of the whole winter. This winter is shaping up to be more of a traditional one," he told blogTO on Wednesday, warning of the stretch of colder weather that's now hitting after a warm fall.

"It's a little too early to be talking about if there could be a white Christmas in Toronto, but certainly it looks like we're going to be looking at colder than normal temperatures to start off the month of December with some snow flurries in the air for the GTA."

Lead photo by

Roy Harris/Shutterstock


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