It's hard to believe with this erratic autumn weather, but Turkey day is officially over, meaning Toronto is well into fall and by logic, one step closer to winter—brr. 

While we're still waiting for this humidity to cool off and the leaves to finally turn colour, the question we're all really wondering is when exactly the city will experience its first snowfall. 

Of course, the first arrival of flurries is never finite. What we do know is that this year's winter will be colder than the last one (to be it fair, it was a warm one), though how much frostier is hard to say. 

Historically, November is the standard month for first snow sightings of the year, averaging between Nov. 17 and Nov. 27 for the past 11 years.

The only exceptions to that rule were in 2015 and 2009, the latter being the first snowfall in 162 years to fall outside of that window .

Last year's first snowfall in the GTA came on Nov. 10, on a night when the temperature hovered below -8 C but felt like -18 C. 

If you're going by ye olde Farmer's Almanac, the long range forecast is predicting the first signs of this year's snow showers to hit as early Nov. 1. The rest of the month is expected to fluctuate between flurries, rain, and mild temperatures averaging around 5 C. 

Whether that means full-fledged snowfall or just a light dusting is obviously impossible to say at this point.

Regardless of when it starts, though, the most important question might be how it ends.

The dragging last days of winter are always the worst, and if you'll recall last year's season ended with deceptively warm weather before battering us again with torrential freezing rain. With Mother Nature, you just never really know.