As Toronto gets settled into the month of November and fall heat waves are relegated to distant memory, our collective mind turns towards a looming question: when will the snow arrive?

With apologies to the Farmers Almanac, no one can actually answer this question with any degree of certainty. It predicts that Toronto will be hit with its first snow showers between November 13-16, when it will also be "very cold."

That's a dubious prediction given the specificity of the dates and Environment Canada's long range forecast, but it's by no means outlandish to call for snow to hit Toronto in November.

It's nearly certain that at some point this month, the city will receive a bit of snow. November 2009 was the first time in 162 years that the month passed without a hint of snowfall, and each year since we've received at least a few flurries.

Last year, Toronto's first snowfall came on November 21. It didn't stay on the ground for long, but it was more than a few flurries.

Everyone's definition of what constitutes the "first snowfall of the season" tends to differ a bit, but if accumulation is the marker, then there's still a good chance that we'll witness a dusting in late November.

Toronto's first snowfall with some measure of accumulation has come between November 17 and 27 in eight of the last 10 years. Notable exceptions have been 2015 and 2009.

All that to say, I won't randomly pick a date that the snow will arrive in Toronto, but if you're thinking in terms of odds, it's a safe bet that some form of frozen precipitation will arrive around the third week of the month.

It's time to rustle up those winter boots.