If winter is your least favourite season, you can most likely breathe a sigh of relief, because it looks like Toronto is in for a relatively mild and slow start to the season this year, but this comes with one big caveat.  

According to a new report by The Weather Network, El Niño — a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean — has officially arrived. 

For the most part, El Niñ0 winters tend to be relatively mild, especially during strong events like the one anticipated for this winter.

However, the potential for an impactful winter is still there, as evidenced by the ice storm that struck southern Quebec and eastern Ontario during the destructive El Niño of 1997-1998. 

Winter Sneak Peek: Coast-to-coast warmth? Not so fast, El Niño! 🧣🧤❄️ pic.twitter.com/DJYBJlzfqB

— The Weather Network (@weathernetwork) October 19, 2023

Despite this, El Niñ0 winters usually see an "influx of mild Pacific air" over harsh Arctic air, which results in a lack of consistent and severely cold weather. 

"Currently, the classic El Niñ0 pattern is in place with the warmest sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific. Therefore we expect that much of Canada will see a slow start to winter," the report reads. 

"Our early winter forecast looks much like what we typically see with a strong and classic El Niño event." 

Although we'll possibly see a delay in the arrival of consistent cold weather, a "robust finish" to the season is still possible, as a shift towards a central Pacific-based El Niño event is expected by the end of winter or early spring 2024. 

"The pace of the transition to a central Pacific-based El Niño will significantly shape the national weather pattern during January and February and could be the key to how this winter is remembered, especially across Ontario and Quebec," the report continues. 

"If the transition is slow, the early winter pattern will also be the dominant pattern for the season with above normal temperatures across most of Canada," The Weather Network predicts. 

"Conversely, a rapid transition would dramatically increase the potential for a rather robust finish to winter, featuring more persistent, cold weather later in the season across central and eastern Canada."